FoundConf Rand Fishkin.pdf

It’s the End of Traffic
as We Know It
And I feel… fine?
Created by Rand Fishkin, CEO

Part I
What happened to the
WWW?

In 2025, growth is slow

Everybody’s stagnating

Social media use in Japan 2019 vs. 2025
shows ~3-5% annual growth

Source: DMFA 2025

Maybe search is still growing?

Or maybe everything else is shrinking…

It’s quiet in the EU/UK too

Yes, AI is on the rise…

Traditional Search vs. AI Tool Visits
in the USA 2023-2025
(Percent of desktop devices with >1 visit/month to any of the included properties)

100%

96%

96%

96%

96%

96%

96%

95%

96%

96%

96%

96%

96%

96%

96%

96%

96%

96%

96%

96%

96%

95%

96%

96%

96%

96%

96%

95%

94%

95%

95%

90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
29%

30%

24%

20%
12%

10%

14%

16%

16%

14%

14%

15%

17%

18%

19%

18%

20%

20%

25%

24%

24%

31%

32%

32%

33%

36%

36%

25%

21%

8%

0%

AI Tools includes any visits to: ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot, Gemini, Perplexity, and/or Deepseek
Traditional Search includes any visits to: Google, Bing, Yahoo, and/or DuckDuckGo

Source: multi-million device clickstream panel provided by

Assembled & analyzed by

36%

37%

38%

What Percent of Americans are Heavy Users of Traditional
Search vs. AI Tools 2023-2025
(Percent of US desktop devices with 10+ visits/month to any of the included properties)

90%
84%

84%

84%

84%

84%

83%

83%

85%

86%

86%

86%

86%

87%

86%

85%

87%

86%

86%

87%

87%

87%

88%

87%

87%

88%

88%

87%

85%

86%

86%

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
19%

20%
11%

10%
3%

6%

7%

8%
5%

4%

4%

4%

5%

6%

6%

5%

6%

7%

12%

12%

12%

12%

14%

15%

16%

16%

19%

16%

8%

0%

10+ Visits/Month to: ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot, Gemini, Perplexity, and/or Deepseek
10+ Visits/Month to: Google, Bing, Yahoo, and/or DuckDuckGo

Source: multi-million device clickstream panel provided by

Assembled & analyzed by

20%

20%

21%

AI “search” is <5% of traditional in the US

Source: multi-million device clickstream panel provided by

Assembled & analyzed by

The EU has been adopting AI search a bit faster

Source: multi-million device clickstream panel provided by

Assembled & analyzed by

In Japan, AI search is <3%, but growing

Source: multi-million device clickstream panel provided by

Assembled & analyzed by

But, the rate of growth is
falling…

Growth Rate of Americans Visiting AI Tools 1X+/Month 2023-2025
(Growth rate vs. previous month of desktop device visits)

Includes visits to:

1.6
1.5

1.47X

1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0

1.18X

1.15X
1.17X

1.10X

1.08X

1.09X
1.05X

1.04X
0.98X

0.9

1.09X

1.07X

1.11X
1.02X
0.95X

1.16X

1.00X

1.03X

1.02X
0.96X

1.00X

1.02X

1.03X

1.00X

1.03X
1.01X

1.00X

0.90X

0.8
0.7
0.6

Source: multi-million device clickstream panel provided by

Assembled & analyzed by

1.03X

Only ChatGPT & Gemini have sustained growth

Source: multi-million device clickstream panel provided by

Assembled & analyzed by

That’s true for the EU/UK too…

Source: multi-million device clickstream panel provided by

Assembled & analyzed by

As a result, the platforms are
shifting from user growth to
revenue/user growth.

Source: Designer Depot

2025

2014

-99% in the last 11 years

~10X the reach with
zero-click content

This one has no link.
This one has a link.

~10X the reach with
zero-click content

Media sites saw 25-50%
traffic declines since 2024

(continuing a 5-year negative overall trend)

Source: Press Gazette

Source: Press Gazette

Source: SparkToro

What about Google?

Source: SearchEngineLand

Growth of Google Searches 2023-2024
140

2023

125.73

120

90%

YoY Growth

Google grew searches 21.64%
(4 ChatGPTs of volume) in 2024

110.12
103.36

100
91.09

70%

50%
36.92%

80
21.64%

20.89%

30%
16.04%

60

14.32%

10%
-4.64%

40

-12.07%

18.7

20

-10%

21.7

-30%
4.19

4.79

4.06

3.57

2.79

3.82

6.04

5.76

-50%

0
All Google
Searches (avg)

Google.com
(default)

Google Images

Google News

Google Shopping

Source: Analysis of Datos’ desktop US panel 2023 and 2024.

Google Maps*

Google Video

Growth 2023-24

Avg monthly searches/active device

2024

But…

Is Google referring less traffic?

In 2024, what happens after Europeans search

?
40.3%

A click...
(to one of the 3 options below)

37.4%

59.7%

74.6%
(to unpaid, organic results)

24%
(to YouTube, Maps, Images, News,
or another Google property)

1.4%*

22.3%

Paid ads appear on ~20% of
Nothing. Another search.
searches, so avg paid CTR is ~6%
(the browsing session ends)
(in Google’s “all” tab)
(when PPC ads are present).

“Zero-Click Searches”
That means…

For every 1,000 EU Google searches,
374 clicks go to the open web.

(to a paid ad)

Source: clickstream panel provided by

* When paid ads are present, ad CTR is ~7% in the EU

Assembled & analyzed by

In 2024, what happens after Americans search

?

41.5%

37.1%

21.4%

One or more clicks...

Nothing.

Another search.

(to one of the 3 options below)

(the browsing session ends)

(in Google’s “all” tab)

58.5%

70.5%
(to unpaid, organic results)

28.5%
(to YouTube, Maps, Images, News,
or another Google property)

1%*
(to a paid ad)

Source: clickstream panel provided by

“Zero-Click Searches”
That means…

For every 1,000 US Google searches,
360 clicks go to the open web.
The full report is here, assembled & analyzed by

Zero-Click Searches in the European Union vs. United States
(measuring all searches in Google performed by the panel’s mobile* and desktop devices, January-May 2024)

EU Google Search CTR
(mobile & desktop weighted avg)

Searches w/ 1+
Click
40.3%

US Google Search CTR
(mobile & desktop weighted avg)

Searches w/ 1+
Click 41.5%
Zero-Click
Searches 58.5%

Zero-Click Searches
59.7%

* Study panel includes desktop & mobile browser searches only; zero-click searches may be higher in Google Assistant/Google Search App queries

Source: clickstream panel provided by

Assembled & analyzed by

Only
42.6% of
desktop
search
sends
traffic to
the
open
web

Source: clickstream panel provided by

Assembled & analyzed by

And AI?
Fuggedaboudit.

AI tools send only a tiny portion of traffic out

ChatGPT:

<2%

of sessions end with a
click to the open web.

Source: SimilarWeb

Gemini:

~0.01%

of sessions end with a
click to the open web.

Source: Ahrefs on LinkedIn and https://chatgpt-vs-google.com/

Part II
What does this mean for
web marketing?

Traffic Referrals in 2020

Source: GrowthBadger

The Web's Largest Traffic Referrers Jan. 2024
0.69%
0.82%

0.56%

Next 155 Sites
10.34%

75% of all traffic referrals
come from search

0.84%
1.86%
1.90%

14% come from social
11% is everyone else

2.31%
2.95%
3.54%
3.57%

& 7.21%

63.41%

** Sites with a single owner that pass referrals via multiple entities have been grouped (e.g. Twitter.com, Twimg.com, and T.co; Live.com, Bing.com, MicrosoftOnline.com, Office.com, and Office365.com; etc.)

But That’s Not
Where People Spend Time…

Share of Traffic Among the Top 170 Largest TrafficReferring Sites in the US
Gov/Edu
1.68%

Travel Real Estate
1.16%
1.49%

Health
0.78%

Security
0.52%
Social
20.75%

Games
3.65%
Financial
5.26%

Social, news,
productivity, and video
are where people
consume content and
discover brands.

Video & Audio
10.23%

Search may send
the clicks, but it’s
only the 5th mosttrafficked
category overall.
Search
10.25%

Productivity
(email, Slack, Office, LLMs, etc.)

20.05%

Ecommerce
11.36%
News
12.83%

Referrals to the Top 170 Sites vs. the Long Tail
(by percent of all referral traffic sent Jan 23-Jan 24 | Source: Datos' Clickstream Panel)
Referrals to the Top 170

Referrals to the Long Tail

100%

Unfortunately, the top sites are winning
an ever greater share of all referral traffic.

90%
80%
70%
60%
50%

42.3%

40%

45.4%

44.6%

43.9%

30%
20%
10%
NOTE: Total referral traffic from the 170 sites studied rose 0.103% over this period

0%

Jan 2023

Feb 2023

Mar 2023

Apr 2023

May 2023

Jun 2023

Jul 2023

Aug 2023

Sep 2023

Oct 2023

Nov 2023

Dec 2023

Jan 2024

In summary: Traffic is dying.
Attention is rising.
Stop optimizing for traffic.
Start optimizing for influence.

Part III
How do we do our jobs?

#1
Time to start building on rented land.
(i.e., distribute your message on properties you don’t
control)

462K followers over 16 years… Then Elmo comes along…
That’s what I get for building on “rented land.”

I’m pretty salty
about this.

This is building on LinkedIn’s “rented
land.” It might go away any day, but…

It has far greater potential
reach than our website

And we’re reaching exactly
the right audience.

These are all rented land.

I’d argue this is
rented land, too.

#2
Drop Traffic as a KPI. Measure audience
size, reach, interest, and sales instead.
(traffic can be a fine secondary metric, but it’s a dumb thing to
optimize for unless you sell CPM ads)

Those who focus exclusively on traffic
acquisition are stuck with search.
0%
Google.com
Bing & MS Sites
Facebook.com
Reddit.com
YouTube.com
DuckDuckGo
Yahoo.com
Twitter Sites
Cisco Duo & Okta
LinkedIn.com
Amazon.com
Instagram.com
Instructure.com
Pinterest Sites
Github Sites
Discord Sites
Wikipedia.org
Twitch.tv
MSN.com
Fandom.com
eBay.com
OpenAI.com

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%
72.48%

5.20%
3.36%
2.39%
2.18%
2.06%
1.99%
1.30%
1.01%
0.62%
0.48%
0.43%
0.33%
0.32%
0.29%
0.24%
0.18%
0.17%
0.16%
0.12%
0.10%
0.10%

Not a lot of channel
diversity here.

FYI: Traffic and revenue are not the same thing
Via Wil Reynolds at Seer Interactive

HubSpot's Traffic Apocalypse! Down 80%!
Via Aleyda Solis

HubSpot’s Q4 Revenue: All-Time High. Stock
Jumps on Surprising Growth!

Via Yahoo! Finance

Via SparkToro

Side Note: Choosing channel investments based
on referral data will make you Google’s fool
Real EstateHealth Security
Travel
0.78% 0.52%
Gov/Edu 1.49% 1.16%
1.68%
Games
3.65%

Social
20.75%

Financial
5.26%
Video &
Audio
10.23%

Productivity
20.05%

Search
10.25%

Ecommerce
11.36%

News
12.83%

Leads to one of these… Guess
who gets credit in your analytics?

Almost everything that
happens in these categories…

#3
Find where your audience pays
attention; market to them there.
(you also might want to stop branding
yourself and your work with a single-channel)

Where is your
audience
influenced?
(inner circle)

7%

35K

Comparison Sites
Podcasts
Traditional
news Media

145K
15%

40K

2%
1%

30K 25K

35K

2%

SubReddits

Where do you
allocate budget?

10%

Industry
websites & blogs

Social Ads
9%

vs.

(outer circle)

Conferences & Events

45K
140K
50K

8%

6%

75K

ChatGPT, Perplexity, etc.
G Discover & Apple News

Social
Feeds

1%
1%

Slack, FB, & WhatsApp
Groups

4%

110K
80K
100K

90K

33%

YouTube
Channels

1%

Email
Newsletters

Google Search
Keywords (unbranded)

Every audience is different; and no two companies’
marketing channel mixes should be the same.

e.g. If I wanted to reach
graphic designers, I’d
take a close look at
Behance, Dribbble, and
Threads

Getting your content, ads,
and brand on these sites
might be more valuable
than trying to drive traffic
to your own.

No link. $500K+ in sales
in a week. Entirely with
Zero Click Marketing.

Via Seattle Ultrasonics

The future of Digital Marketing must be…
about more than just Google
inclusive of KPIs that aren’t clicks or traffic
focused on influencing audiences in the
right places with the right message

Thank You!
Slides will be available after the event.

Search Social

Audience
Reach
Interest
Sales

Content
Platforms

Website

KW
Volume

Followers

Viewers/
Listeners

Returning
Visitors

Visibility

Impressions

Views,
Minutes

Product
Page Views

Branded
Searches

Engagements

Comments,
Shares, Votes

Email Subs

Conversions & Conversion Rate

Need to prove value to your boss/client?
Build a correlation dashboard.

e.g. For us, zero-click social content is
*strongly* correlated with signups
over the following 2-6 weeks

How to build a hard-to-measure metrics dashboard



本文档为站内渲染。原始文件本地路径：saas/source/seo-llm/raw-seo知识库-TXT整理-PPT-John喜欢和引用的那些海外演讲嘉宾PPTs-FoundConf-Rand-F-4cd195.txt（仅本地保留，不入库不部署）